Every time we open the weather forecast and see something like: «the probability of precipitation is 30%», we immediately fall into a stupor, trying to decipher what this actually means, and whether it will rain. But at last meteorologists have explained how to read the weather forecast correctly.
It turns out that information about the probability of precipitation can be interpreted in different ways. It all depends on the point where a person was located when they looked at the forecast, as well as on how that same person moved around during the day.
For example, in the morning a resident of Moscow opened the forecast, which stated that the probability of rain in the coming hours was 40%. This means that over 40 percent of the area covered by the forecast it will rain absolutely for certain. But if you look at this same data from the opposite angle, it turns out that over 100% of the city’s territory it will rain with a probability of 40%.
In addition, it is important to note that these figures in no way indicate the intensity of the precipitation. For instance, the weather forecast shows that it will rain with a probability of only 10%, yet a person may still get caught in an extremely heavy, localized downpour.
